Accounting for business adaptations in economic disruption models

Charlotte Brown, Erica Seville, Tracy Hatton, Joanne Stevenson, Nicole Smith, John Vargo

Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 25(1), 4019001, 2019. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000470


Current economic models specifically designed for infrastructure outage and disaster situations are attempting to incorporate the ability of businesses to prepare for, adapt to, and recover from, disruptions. Using business impact and recovery data from the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes, and qualitative validation, this paper presents an empirically derived, transferable model for estimating business recovery following infrastructure and non-infrastructure disruptions. The Business Behaviours Model (BBM) is a logarithmic function that calculates operability (ability to meet demand) over time based on fifteen industry sectors, and the level of experienced infrastructure and non-infrastructure disruption. The BBM can be applied as a temporal adjustment factor to an economic model, or it can be used as a tool to explore the impact of different disruption types and magnitudes on organisation recovery.

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