A system dynamics model of post-earthquake reconstruction pathways

Alice Chang-Richards, Charlotte Brown, Nicola Smith

QuakeCoRE project: Effects of alternative reconstruction pathways on earthquake recovery (project # 3710620), 2017


The time for restoring the damaged built environment after a major disaster is a critical issue in the study of economic impact of disasters. Previous studies show that business interruption due to the damage to business premises and infrastructure upon which businesses rely to function can have a multiplier effect on the local economy (Stevenson et al., 2012; Webb, Tierney, & Dahlhamer, 2002; Wein & Rose, 2011). Extensive earthquake damage to highway components (e.g. bridges, roads, tunnels and retailing walls, etc.), for instance, can severely disrupt traffic flows, affecting the speed of emergency response, causing further disruptions to supply chain of certain goods and products (Werner, Taylor, & Moore, 1997). Long duration of service outage or a long and complex reconstruction process may lead to more significant capital losses than the direct impact caused by the disaster (Rose, Wei, & Wein, 2011).

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