Socio-economic analysis of fuel disruption scenarios in New Zealand

This project investigated how organisations and communities respond to fuel disruptions, modelling the economic impact of various fuel disruption scenarios and mitigation options to better understand the impact of disruption and the potential value of mitigation actions for New Zealand.

Fuel is a key economic enabler. Disruptions to fuel availability and/or price changes have considerable impacts on both regional and national economies. Understanding the potential impacts of any disruption can help decision-makers to determine the best mitigation and management strategies.

The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) engaged Market Economics Ltd (M.E) and Resilient Organisations to evaluate the economic consequences of fuel outage scenarios, with and without mitigation options to better understand the impact of disruption and potential value of mitigation actions for New Zealand. The economic evaluation was undertaken using MERIT’s (Measuring the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool) Dynamic Economic Model. MERIT was applied to five disruption scenarios including international fuel supply disruption, refinery disruption scenarios, and refinery to Auckland pipeline disruptions.

The project findings contributed to the Board of Inquiry into the 2017 Auckland Fuel Supply Disruption.

Project team
Charlotte Brown, Resilient Organisations
Nicola McDonald, Market Economics

Project funding

This project was commissioned by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment

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