Uncertainty quantification of economic modelling

This project aims to improve our ability to understand and report on uncertainty related to economic modelling of disruption events.  Specifically, this project aims to develop a method for propagating uncertainty through the RiskScape-MERIT modelling process.

Project overview

This project aims to improve our ability to understand and report on uncertainty related to economic modelling of disruption events.  Specifically, this project aims to develop a method for propagating uncertainty through the RiskScape-MERIT modelling process.

Resilient Organisations are working with the modelling teams (Market Economics and GNS Science) to identify and explore the input variables that have the largest impact on economic disruption; and to identify any critical tipping points that may cause a step-change in likely disruption.  The results will help to prioritise areas for further model refinement and research into the impacts of disruption events.

Project goals

  • To develop a method to propagate uncertainty through the MERIT modelling process;
  • To quantify uncertainty in the MERIT modelling process;
  • To understand MERIT model sensitivity to input variables;
  • To develop a set of economic futures for future scenario modelling;
  • To identify economic tipping points for future research.

Key contact

Charlotte Brown

Principal Research Consultant
Resilient Organisations Ltd
e : [email protected]

Project team

Charlotte Brown

Resilient Organisations

Nicky Smith

Market Economics

Emily Harvey

Market Economics

Rob Buxton

GNS Science

Nick Horspool

GNS Science

S.R. Uma

GNS Science

Our funders

We appreciate the support of our funders for this project: